Growth risks for the EU emanating from global imbalances

The objective of this paper is to examine the possible implications of the adjustment of global and intraEuropean imbalances, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic impacts. We design a series of macroeconomic scenarios and look at the impact of global and European shocks (corresponding to various policies aimed at reducing imbalances) on the economies of the biggest world players - the US, China, the oil exporting countries, and the EU and its individual members. The methodological approach we adopt is based around a series of simulations using the National Institute’s global macroeconomic model NIGEM. Key findings suggest that while global imbalances may be adjusted either through policies in the US or in China, the adjustment on the Chinese side is somewhat less costly for Europe than the adjustment on the US side. Intra-European imbalances may be reduced through various policies, an appropriate policy mix is probably required

Inter-party vote movements in Turkey between 1999 and 2002: A statistical analysis using cross-provincial election data

In the 2002 Turkish parliamentary election, more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a party different than the one they chose in 1999. The outcomes of these elections are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties to the Justice and Development Party, from the Democratic Left Party to the Republican People’s and Young parties, and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties to the True Path Party. The Justice and Development Party, the ruling party since 2002, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and half of the center-right votes.Elections; Voter behavior; Party preference; Turkey

BB and BcB_c mesons with NRQCD and Clover actions

We present preliminary results from our study of the heavy-light spectrum and decay constants. For the heavy quark, we use NRQCD at various masses around and above the $b$ quark mass. For the first time, the heavy quark action and the heavy-light current consistently include corrections at second order in the non-relativistic expansion, as well as the leading finite $a$ corrections. The light quarks are simulated using a tadpole-improved Clover action at various masses in the strange and $c$ quark region.Comment: 6 Pages LaTex. Axis files of figures included. Joint writeup of two talks presented at LATTICE96(heavy quarks